There was a slight increase in activity in October according to reports from the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). Five small collapse events occurred on the dome, each producing significant deposits of ash up to 3 km away. Pyroclastic flows occurred along most of the volcano's main drainage. Ash fell predominantly W and NW of the volcano, light ash fell in the N of the island. Dome collapses were commonly followed by periods of volcanic tremor and ash venting, and sometimes swarms of volcano-tectonic earthquakes occurred shortly after the collapse events. The dome gradually eroded, leaving some large fractures in the carapace that could lead to larger collapses in the future.

Visual observations. Intermittent small pyroclastic flows originated from all flanks of the dome. The first significant event, at 0801 on 13 October, produced pyroclastic flows in Tuitt's Ghaut and Tyer's Ghaut. Volcanic tremor after the collapse correlated with ash venting from high on the dome's N flank, the ash cloud rapidly reached 7,500 m. The cloud drifted NW, depositing ash on parts of the island.

At 0916 on 18 October, there was another collapse, the ash cloud rose to around 2,000 m and moved W, although the exact direction was uncertain because a low cloud hampered observation. Subsequent volcanic tremor lasted for several hours.

Another small dome collapse occurred at 2241 on 20 October. The ash cloud from this event rose to an estimated 2,500 m, drifting slowly to the W and NW. Observations the following morning revealed that the pyroclastic flows from this event had traveled towards Plymouth as far as Upper Parsons (2.5 km W of the summit). Fallout included some coarse lithic fragments 4 to 5 mm in diameter.

At 0051 on 26 October, a fourth small collapse occurred. The seismic signal lasted for about 12 minutes followed by an extended period of tremor. Reports were received of thunder from the resultant ash cloud, and there was subsequent wet ashfall as far as 7 km N. Information received from NOAA satellite images indicated that the ash cloud reached to between 6,000 and 7,500 m. Observations during the early hours of the morning suggested that there were two ash cloud lobes, one S of Belham Valley and one over the Salem-Old Towne area. The deepest measured ashfall was 25 mm; 4 mm or more fell in other areas. The ash was fine grained, with common accretionary lapilli. During an observation flight on the 27th, steaming could be seen at the edge of the delta, indicating that the pyroclastic flows had traveled into the sea. The flows also reached NE as the Tar River Estate House (3 km from the summit). On the SW side, down the White River, a thin deposit of ash from the pyroclastic flows could be seen as far as about 700 m from the old coastline at O'Garras; when these deposits were emplaced is unknown.

A fifth small dome collapse occurred at 0418 on 31 October; an ash plume first drifted W, and thenN and NE depositing some ash in occupied areas at the island's N end. An observation flight later that day revealed new deposits: a pyroclastic-flow deposit in the White River reaching Galways Soufriere, and another in the Gages valley that did not extend beyond the top of the Gages fan. The White River deposit had numerous large angular blocks resting on its surface.

A large fissure within the dome extended from its base, where it rests against Chances Peak, to its top in the Galways area (S). At the foot of this crack a triangular-shaped opening had developed and appeared to have been the source of the White River pyroclastic-flow.

Unusual wind directions during the latter part of October directed the plume to the N. As a result, residents in N Montserrat smelled strong sulfurous odors.

On 27 October, probing into the pyroclastic deposits in the area of the Farm River in Trant's yielded these depth-temperature relations: 1.0 m and 86°C; 1.4 m and 146°C; and 2.25 m and 239°C. Unusually clear conditions in the early evening of 27 October enabled observers in Old Towne and Salem to see three small glowing areas on the dome; these areas were thought to reveal the dome's incandescent interior exposed during the recent collapse events.

Seismicity, deformation, and environmental monitoring. Over the reporting period seismicity was generally low; however, small dome collapses triggered volcanic tremor and swarms of volcano-tectonic earthquakes. As in the previous month, tremor correlated with intensified ash-and-steam venting from the N flanks of the dome.

Five small collapses occurred between 13 and 31 October. These were marked by pyroclastic-flow signals that lasted several minutes. The collapse on the 13th was preceded by a swarm of small volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Several much larger volcano-tectonic earthquakes occurred during the collapse, the first approximately 30 seconds after the start of the collapse; hypocenters for these events were tightly clustered directly under the lava dome.

The collapse on the 18th was accompanied by a more intense swarm of earthquakes (table 32). The first earthquake occurred about 40 seconds after the beginning of the collapse and was one of the largest earthquakes recorded since the installation of the broadband network; it was felt in the Woodlands area. This earthquake was much richer in low frequencies than typical volcano-tectonic earthquakes on Montserrat, possibly suggesting a larger source dimension. Hypocenters for the largest earthquakes were located S of the volcano. At the start of the swarm, hypocenters were directly under Roaches Mountain; as the swarm progressed, hypocenters migrated to S of Chances Peak. Preliminary calculations showed that the largest events were consistent with oblique-normal faulting in a NE-SW direction.

Table 32. October 1998 earthquake swarms at Soufriere Hills. Courtesy of MVO.

All GPS sites on the volcano and in the N of the island appear stable and there were no significant changes since last month. The EDM reflector on the northern flank was shot from Windy Hill. The line continues to shorten slowly. The site was later destroyed by a pyroclastic flow.

SO₂ flux, measured using the miniCOSPEC instrument, was (in metric tons/day) 1,300 on 9 October, 340 on 21 October, and 280 on 30 October. These results are similar to those measured in recent months, although an apparent decrease occurred late in the month. Sulfur dioxide was also measured at ground level using diffusion tubes around the island. SO₂ in Plymouth (at Police Headquarters) remained high; elsewhere the average levels were very low.

Geological Summary. The complex, dominantly andesitic Soufrière Hills volcano occupies the southern half of the island of Montserrat. The summit area consists primarily of a series of lava domes emplaced along an ESE-trending zone. The volcano is flanked by Pleistocene complexes to the north and south. English's Crater, a 1-km-wide crater breached widely to the east by edifice collapse, was formed about 2000 years ago as a result of the youngest of several collapse events producing submarine debris-avalanche deposits. Block-and-ash flow and surge deposits associated with dome growth predominate in flank deposits, including those from an eruption that likely preceded the 1632 CE settlement of the island, allowing cultivation on recently devegetated land to near the summit. Non-eruptive seismic swarms occurred at 30-year intervals in the 20th century, but no historical eruptions were recorded until 1995. Long-term small-to-moderate ash eruptions beginning in that year were later accompanied by lava-dome growth and pyroclastic flows that forced evacuation of the southern half of the island and ultimately destroyed the capital city of Plymouth, causing major social and economic disruption.

Information Contacts: Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO), c/o Chief Minister's Office, PO Box 292, Plymouth, Montserrat, West Indies (URL: http://www.mvo.ms/).